Game Theory
Decoding Trump's chaos: What science tells us about how Canada — and the world — should respond
The Conversation — As uncertain as Donald Trump's new world order is, science can explain the effects of his aggression and how to respond.
Summary
"Decoding Trump's chaos: What science tells us about how Canada — and the world — should respond" — Eric Cadesky, The Conversation (Sept 2, 2026)
The article uses psychological and game-theory principles to explain Trump's erratic trade-war tactics and how Canada should respond.
Why other countries give in
Two psychological forces explain why many countries have acquiesced to Trump's demands:
- Loss aversion — People fear losing a dollar more than they like gaining one. Countries settle for less punitive tariffs because the threatened loss of jobs feels unbearable.
- Unpredictability as a weapon — Random attacks keep targets stressed and submissive, much like animals in shock experiments that give up when they can't predict or control the shocks.
How Canada should respond
Game theory simulations show the tit-for-tat strategy works best: start with co-operation, respond in kind to aggression, forgive past transgressions, but do not tolerate future attacks. Tariffs should be met with equal-value tariffs.
The political landscape
Prime Minister Mark Carney has high approval ratings for holding the line and pausing trade talks. Canadians are united by shared opposition to Trump ("Elbows Up," "Never 51"), which strengthens Canada's negotiating position.
Outlook
More erratic attacks are expected, but science supports a firm, reciprocal response rather than appeasement or escalation.
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